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Fear and Loving at TOC

It’s that time again, when the digi-literati convene on the Marriott Marquis in Manhattan and gleefully frighten the hell out of everybody. (One year, after Seth Godin gave a presentation, a CEO muttered to me, “Now do I slit my wrists?”)

TOC is one of those conferences that is simultaneously exhilarating and depressing. Exhilarating because so many possibilities are gaily strewn across the immediate future like lights on a Christmas tree. Depressing because…when you get down to the nitty-gritty of implementation, that “immediate” future becomes further and further away. “Now” begins to look like next year. The glitter wears off the possibilities and they become work, just like everything else.

It’s an unnerving experience if you’re not prepared for it. And although this is TOC’s fourth incarnation, many publishers are still not prepared for it. Which seems to be part of O’Reilly’s job in this industry – to push the business past its comfort zone, even just for a couple of days. Enough pushing, the theory goes, and eventually what was unnerving last year is the way of doing business this year.

SBook publishers are a tough bunch to push. Conservative by nature, cautious to the bone, book publishers do not embrace change – and that’s putting it mildly. It was winter of 1999 when ONIX was adopted as a BISAC standard. It’s now 11 years later and…we are still lecturing publishers on the importance of good metadata (when it’s more important now than it was in 1999!).

This is a quality very difficult to explain to vendors who come into book publishing with great solutions, and who frequently leave book publishing with extreme disillusionment. Will book publishing ever move beyond ink-on-paper? (When it wants to.) Does it want to? (Not particularly.) Will it survive? (Yes.)

But O’Reilly’s right, and vendors need to pay attention. Looking back on the presentations for TOC 2009, many of the ideas offered up then have just begun to trickle out into the mainstream. Decent formatting for ebooks is a good idea. Social networking helps call attention to your titles. Women read loads of ebooks. Do consumer research. XML is a great tool that will help a publisher create books and other materials in any number of formats.

Vendors should not be discouraged by this seeming slowness – on the contrary, many publishers are only just now ready to hear what you have to say. There are so many of you who have such great tools – DAMs, editorial tools, production and XML tools, social media platforms, workflow management – and the emphasis on progress and innovation at TOC drives home the very points that you are making daily to prospective clients.

Yes, publishing is behind other entertainment industries – notably the music business, notably in issues like piracy and pricing. But it IS moving ahead. Maybe not under its own steam – recently, the mere fact of the Apple iPad led publishers into a strong enough position to finally negotiate with Amazon over ebook pricing – but it is being hauled, kicking and screaming, into the 21st century.

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ISBN hour on Twitter – Aggregating the Tweets

Many folks have asked me to aggregate the ISBNhour tweets – if you click you will get them all.

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DBW, the iPad and Amazon

Digital Book World, held in New York City on January 26 and 27, was an unqualified success. I’d initially had doubts as to how it would hold up against TOC, which can be a life-changing conference – and is at the forefront of where technology meets book publishing. I was, in fact, leery.

But the focus of DBW was somewhat different than TOC’s. Trade publishers were in abundance, as were agents (of all things!). And the tone of the conversation was rather implementation-focused – how to use social media for marketing purposes, how NOT to design ebooks, what publishers and online stores are thinking about when they set ebook pricing.

The Tweetstream is a good indication of what folks were thinking while they attended. Two presentations in particular nearly brought Twitter down – Brian Napack of Macmillan speaking on digital piracy (urging publishers to spend heavily on finding pirates and issuing takedown notices “while they still have the money to do so”, and noting that it had gotten so expensive to do this in the music industry that many labels had laid off their anti-piracy staff); and Robert Gottlieb’s participation in Brian O’Leary’s panel on the challenges ebooks face when so much content is available for free on the web.

So it was lively! And educational. And extremely well-attended. And the iPad launched right in the middle of my panel on Wednesday, which I absolutely take as personally as it’s possible to take something.

But DBW is not done yet!

Every Thursday afternoon at 1 EST, DBW is hosting a Digital Roundtable. Pablo Defendini of Tor, Kate Rados of Chelsea Green, Bridget Warren (former co-owner of Vertigo Books), Guy Gonzalez of F&W/DBW, and I discuss our evolving landscape and take questions from those who’ve dialed in.

And! There are webcasts – an archive of them here and more to come.

Most importantly (to me) is an upcoming one-day intensive seminar called Digitize Yourself: Real World Skills for the Future. I’m hosting this, and we’ll be looking at tools, workflow issues, and other extremely practical matters for those folks who have to implement the blue-skies thinking their colleagues pick up at conferences. This will take place on April 15th in New York City, and more details will be available soon. Ish.

Well…after the DBW and iPad excitement, many of us were figuring we could sit back and breathe a little bit. But no! Talks between Macmillan and Amazon broke down on Thursday and by Friday Amazon had removed the “buy” button from all Macmillan print titles, and clicking on Macmillan’s Kindle titles only got you a “this book not found” error. Macmillan books also evaporated off of wish lists.

Why?

The unicorn is why. Apple is working on an “agency” model with publishers – pubs tell Apple how much they want to charge for a book, and Apple keeps a percentage of that. Amazon sells a book for whatever it wants. And while some argue that the Amazon model nets publishers more money in the long run, this is about one thing that’s more important to publishers than money: Control.

In the agency model, publishers set the price. In the Amazon model, retailers set the price…and customers come to expect extremely low prices for certain things, even though the retailers are losing money on those things. Those low prices are loss leaders for the retailers’ other inventory.

Amazon claims they are capitulating, though they are certainly taking their time about it. But in another sign of their concern about the iPad, they just bought a company called Touchco, which makes touch-screens.

As for publishers…I worry that publishers’ extreme desire for control in a world they can increasingly NOT control (piracy, author behavior, new business models that disintermediate them) is pushing them to make decisions that are not really in their best interests. If you are getting more revenue by NOT controlling prices, why is it so important to do so? If you are selling more books when you’re NOT controlling piracy, why spend boatloads of money going after torrent sites? Ebooks may not be viable to sell at $9.99 right now – and may serve as a loss leader for the time being – but costs of producing ebooks will go down (they always do) and eventually publishers can make a nice amount of revenue from $9.99 ebooks.

Controlling the scene is not always good for you. The need to control may indeed be an irrational (and rather panicky) response to uncertainty.

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