An interesting post and certainly the outlying communities and rural communities that don’t boast the sufficient population densities to afford luxuries like big box booksellers will always find ways to get books or information.

What you’re describing is actually the obsolescence of the traditional book industry distribution chain while also acknowledging the new attitudes in consumer behavior.

Basically, I think that the box bookstore model is doomed to the tarpits and that the average consumer couldn’t really care less.

Leapfrogging will happen because it suits the consumer’s preferred method of acquiring content. The more hurdles in their way the more they’ll just bypass us all together.

What you haven’t mentioned is the ultimate leapfrogging – P2P file sharing.

Not only are all of the traditional publishing distribution channels bypassed but also the monetary ones.

Here’s an excellent article on this kind of leapfrogging as it happened in music and film from the CEO of Big Champagne.

This isn’t about territorial rights or brick and mortar, really. The web creates the ultimate leapfrogging opportunity – and it’s not just kids doing it:

“…the reason I single out the European cities is because that’s where people are forced to wait a long time to see content legally. In the digital world, we don’t want to wait three months, six months. We’re just not accepting that anymore…we want it all, we want it right now and even Mom and Pa Kettle are getting to the point where they say if it’s not on, let’s just fire up the computer and watch it. If they want me to wait six months, I’ve got other options. And people don’t really have a conscious or qualms about that, or at least it’s mitigated by their feeling that they are entitled to keep up with the Jones’. It is the Twitter, real-time Internet expectations.”

Read more: http://news.cnet.com/8301-31001_3-10383572-261.html#ixzz1A6hiDIC2

One possibility this doesn’t address is that in some of these locations smaller independent bookstores with either a) managed to hold on when borders moved in or b) move into other nearby locations might do well with smaller operations less overhead etc.

This will, of course, never make up the lost shelf space, even if smaller stores thrive in EVERY location Borders closes in (unlikely, very unlikely), but …

On the rest of it, totally with you!
Eoin

1) Sorry I was sort of a downer in the comments.

2) I can’t believe you made fun of my typo about hats.

3) I’d be interested in your take on MY little startup idea, http://www.neverendmedia.com…subscription eBooks AS social media.

Chris

I think you’re right about Wal-Mart. They’re already all over the rural areas. And they have a limited amount of shelf space they can allot to books, so the selection will be wretched, of course. And yes, library funds are disappearing, as are the libraries themselves.

Overall book buying has been static for the last couple of years. “Flat is the new up” was the mantra at Making Information Pay a year ago.

There are some interesting experiments brewing regarding web-based writing, and there will have to be subscription or other models built around access to that. The great thing about libraries, of course, is that they offer things “for free” to the end-user…we all pay in taxes, but during the user experience itself, it seems free.

Hats for everyone! And also books. (Yes, I also agree it will pretty much be in that order.)

Random thoughts:

Barnes & Noble, Borders…pretty much all brick-and-mortar exclusively-book stores are already pretty much in more populated areas like cities and suburbs.

In rural areas I’ll bet places like Wal-Mart pick up way more of the local book sales when B&M bookstores go.

Libraries are on the way out also…in urban AND rural areas.

Just because a higher percentage of book purchases are eBooks doesn’t mean overall book buying, book sales or reading is going up. Every passing day brings another attention-wanting distraction that will take people’s attention away from books.

Arts funding and the liberal arts of public education are all being cut all over the place. This makes me think people will be less able to enjoy reading.

What if people just leap right over all paid paper books and ebooks and just go straight to free (probably ad or no-privacy-supported) Web based writing, games, news etc?

I agree hat places that could thrive could be places to hang out…that also sell books, etc, but not as their main money-maker.

Chris Kubica